VVS: si Romney gana en SC, Florida será un paseo

Encuesta de Voter Survey Service para Sunshine State News:

Two weeks away from the Presidential Preference Primary, Mitt Romney holds a commanding lead over the Republican presidential pack in Florida, according to a Sunshine State News Poll of likely primary voters.

Romney tops the poll, which was conducted by Harrisburg, Pa.-based Voter Survey Service (VSS), with 46 percent. When he ran in the 2008 primary, Romney placed second in Florida, taking 31 percent and winning 18 of the 67 counties in the Sunshine State.

“Romney is the clear favorite, and you’d have to conclude he even has a shot to win 50 percent of the GOP vote, depending on what happens in South Carolina,” Jim Lee, the president of Voter Survey Service, told Sunshine State News on Monday. “His media saturation of the Florida airways is clearly having an impact, and, based on what I have learned, he is staying on message by talking about spending and deficits -- two issues GOP voters care about.”

Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich places a distant second with 20 percent. Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who lost the Iowa caucus to Romney by eight votes, takes third with 12 percent.

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who took second in the New Hampshire primary behind Romney, garners 9 percent. When he ran in 2008, Paul took less than 3.25 percent of the vote in the Florida Republican primary.

Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, who placed second behind businessman Herman Cain in the Republican Party of Florida Presidency 5 straw poll in Orlando in September, takes 3 percent in the poll. Eight percent of those surveyed are undecided, while 1 percent of those surveyed back other candidates.

“Mitt’s media ads have successfully positioned him as the only true ‘outsider’ candidate running against other inside-the-Beltway contenders (Gingrich and Santorum in particular), a smart tactic in a year when voters feel Washington is broken,” Lee noted. “At the same time, he is defining his opponents even before voters have a chance to learn more about their positive attributes (Santorum, Gingrich, etc.). This means we’re unlikely to see any of the anti-Romney candidates surging unless one of them can generate momentum from a strong South Carolina showing and/or reshape the race with effective paid TV ads.”