martes, 3 de enero de 2012

Participación

First Read:
*** What to watch: As always in politics, the race probably hinges on turnout. If it’s similar to four years ago -- about 120,000 participants, 60% of whom are self-described evangelicals, and a combined 78% thinking that values and saying what you believe are the most important qualities -- then Santorum has a VERY good chance of winning. Under those circumstances, he becomes a mini-Huckabee. On the other hand, a much higher turnout -- so a smaller percentage of evangelicals and more thinking that electability and experience are the most important things -- would be VERY good news for Romney. A caveat on tonight’s entrance polls, though: ENTRANCE polls are less predictive than EXIT polls, so be cautious when the first wave comes out. Romney, in fact, led the first wave four years ago.

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